51 Happy lesson (b)

 Mr. Lin Yuan Investment Banking speech at Peking University Record
North Linyuan April 21 Record investment report (on -2)
14, the only successful unsuccessful standard stocks to make money. The things to do this When you do not have to do, and this is the biggest risk.
like I said, college students now What is wrong with stocks? you make money is the general direction, as long as you can control the risk of death, you father and mother give you the money, do not got it. I'm rolling on this million, what risk? the greatest risk to the yuan, fearing nothing. I actually do a lot of things are confused, you do not tell him so many risks. risk is to talk, but do not give these young people talk about risk, these people are confused of the speculation. you can give him that much, you actually harm him. really is harmful, not making money is a risk . because the Chinese position to the current situation is such. At present it is positioned in this society, the only standard of success is unsuccessful to make money, make money did not. I said that this standard is not right, the standard is entrenched people. And Chinese people are like money, like the Chinese people are the most money. you tell him the risk, he did not make any money. So this is what we are talking about human nature, but also the passion to buy stocks. because the risk has been locked, and on a million. students have no credit, who lent him money. So as a risk, you have to ask me 89 years into the market, I do not know what the risk. I was so created as. I bought a house, I do not consideration, I do not think we see. Two days ago I bought a thousand shares of Asia have. I asked did not ask them to visit a few months several funds, I say you bought me. so I bought after They made me so, I will not let. I went to their companies for ten minutes, I said to settle down to buy. they told me to a few, always ask the company, I say that you do not ask, I have one of the most basic judgments.
results of foreign venture capital, fund companies have to wait to buy, the results I buy, they gone. for them not to make money, this is the risk. is the time to do the things you do not to do, this is the biggest risk. So young, time is very important. I'll give you the shareholders are good. gambling, I am not people gambling, we are a sure thing to do. Next, I talk how we control the passion. First you need to have an active part in this matter.
this saying much, just wanted to give you encouraging, starting from the young. time is very important, I now more than 40 years old, I would have money I have is useless. I want more than 20 years old money, How happy I am.
young people under me to say, I know a girl, 28 years old this year, seven million. I say you must be better than I have money. She has been with me. She more than okay, she went to my age do not know how many of the wealth. time and money must be proportional. you may now not understand my words, so to make time and money, this is for any one person very important.
then we continue talking about how to stock selection.
15, buy it now 58 times PE Maotai, an increase of 30% for performance, stock prices rose at least three times.
have talked That is the easiest of three companies to make money. And my recommendation, if I choose, I suggested in our circle election. is that there are several major projects to selected companies. Here I give an example to illustrate I just talk about those companies. this and not related to the market.
The first is uncertainty. I did not want to talk about today Maotai. But I was the major shareholder of Maotai, I took 1,700 shares. I do not speak today It is, I can not help to tell. I started in April 2003 to buy Moutai. Maotai was before I bought, because it has a little story inside. Maotai this company, I was I bought in April 2003, when I actually see is not Maotai, Wuliangye was looking at. because I went to Xi'an in 92 years, when we run a real estate company. resulting in a zone leader, and he always eat drink Wuliangye. I said I always buy a box office Wuliangye, he came to drink Wuliangye I feel good. I have time to buy Wuliangye old, time is 140 dollars. Wuliangye I started buying a listing, because I know this company, the director of the development zone, and he do not eat dinner, have drinks Wuliangye. Wuliangye is Gujing market prior to listing. I have these liquor companies have been tracking. Wuliangye listed, I had bought a fifty-some shares are not sold until now, fifty a few dollars to buy. I see Wuliangye I feel good. to 03 years later, I suddenly did not participate in A-share market a few years. Wuliangye how I said it fell to 8 per more. I said, Wuliangye can buy more than 8 yuan.
when I let my three teachers. Let me talk about here, I have three teachers, they presented to me to see the report. I say that you gave me a look at the report. I call these three teachers, see the report, I do not allow them to participate in any investment decision. three also do not know each other. They looked at me and said later that the company has no problems, let them look, individuals express their personal views. including a teacher, he said I looked Wuliangye, but also the Maotai look. because I did not participate in A shares of a few years, I do not know Maotai the market. He said this, I Later, a look, a very good indicator of Maotai. At that time, at that time already 03 7-8 months. I immediately went to the factory went Maotai. At that time, and I have a piece of funds to the two boys. Maotai time to that company, my year is from Shenzhen to go, there are two points to more. bus was gone, 11 o'clock the next day, to open meeting of shareholders. we say the next day too late, their company the company also sent a bus to pick us up three. sat on board the two facilities we fund researchers. The two boys said to me, they have to account for five years are Maotai forget. to go after They say you buy Maotai it, definitely make money. because there is a characteristic Maotai, you must be sold this year, produced five years ago. So Maotai its price, we have not seen it lower prices. I just told commodity prices must be rising, we did not see the Liquor, Wuliangye price. It is a profitable, 53 degrees and 38 degrees these two kinds of wine it does not reduce the price. So we are very sure, it can all be sold. Maotai factory told me later, we are a price rise for two years. my prices are generally not factors. At that time I figured I had when I bought Maotai, PE at about 25,6 times. Maotai I Forget it 20% compound growth. when I was 08 years counted PE, PE to the 06 years I was to forget it was less than 9 times. So after coming back from abroad, I did not buy Wuliangye, I to increase investment in Maotai.
So today, Maotai. I remember in 2004 when everyone s money. At that time, my son some money 8 million. my wife saved, I say you put this money out. I remember less than eighty or eighty. Anyway, bought a single to open an account Maotai, each dividend are also in that account. to some time ago I saw more than 200 million. I saw that day two hundred zero tens of thousands. So we say, first of all is its uncertainty. It is high certainty that the enterprise, but also a brand. At the time, why did I buy a lot of factors to support Maotai. when it kept the price, which is Maotai factory told me, I was eating he sat next to me. because I was his biggest shareholders .11 a month we went and opened a technological transformation will Maotai. Maotai factory told me you buy is right now. He said I kept the wine now has the value of thirty billion. you buy my shares, was more than 20, only more than two hundred million shares, was less than 60 billion. in accordance with the prevailing price to buy it, less than 60 million, he says you must buy right. but we see the actual return on net assets Maotai are more than ten per cent. But Maotai and Wuliangye special phenomenon, we would not count this up. we put it, its ROE is 60%. Wuliangye also reached 58%. It is as much cash on the account. If the net of cash, the actual return on equity is 90%, I Financial told me that there are water. The company has used to, you strongly to buy. so buy, buy again. This is what I say, first of all we have to determine it the more people will drink to the less? when I bought the company, many fund managers is to prevent me to buy, let me buy it. say that fewer and fewer people who drink liquor, do not. then you have indeed heard that drinking liquor does less. but in the end we said, will save the financial indicators, financial indicators you look at it, it is not zero inventory sales. It is a zero inventory, zero inventory is so important. This is what I say is Pork important. big brands and small capital. then we are a small equity into Maotai.
to today, Maotai can not buy? one hundred yuan, and in fact the right to go five hundred of the complex. This is me Maotai and have calculated. just released results, and today we count 58 times PE Maotai, we considered that the compound growth, I now firmly believe that Maotai more than 30% compound growth. So, to 2009, three years PE after it has become little more than 20, which we have not considered factors in price increases. because it provided the first quarter of this year by 16%. Therefore, the level of price-earnings ratio is dynamic. I think I hold Maotai, I wrong. I take it, I do not sell, it will not fall. I'll take it, so I think that holding. If we put the time fixed in 2009, these three years I feel the most is to sleep for three years , 09 years, we have at least three times forget. The company, last year I gave a financial magazine, he interviewed me in April last year. He always laughed, because I like to talk big man. a feeling that lying, like bragging. I say you laugh, you think I am this time next year, I may have to come a cropper Linyuan, you must think so, because I said, lying much. But you are wrong, I will never fall, will fall at least 12 months. I say you do not see, Maotai company has a recognized stock price, more than 30 warrants, and no, I can sell Maotai company, where he can purchase to go. I say you do not take this view, I said I will not be a loss of 12 months. It is the end of a guarantee, security at the end Maotai companies, but also several specialized banks in there to do security, shares a commitment to change.
one thing we do, think Any exposure is down for a rich man, I say you are nonsense. I returned to you today that I will not shrink the wealth. how will not shrink, and I will be speaking, I will present profit locked. Anyone who wants this, it is impossible to make me shrink. the people around me, follow me so many years, they say money does not make money, after the things we do not know, but they say that you This one makes you lose money too difficult. This is what we speak, and accounts.
then talking about how the enterprise accounts. the first three years of the account I want to count. The point is not I buy it? we want to This point should buy it? itself is different from buying and holding. I have 20 companies now hold, I would not necessarily buy. why not see the stock market there is a risk, it is human psychological factors. In the 12 months, I may be asymmetric in this account. Why? because the stock market has a psychological factors. we all have to sell, it will fall, and I can not control it . I said, Why do not hold, and buy the same? you buy a stock has a cumulative increase. The big increase in the cumulative 12-month at risk, how you do buy high? This is a big risk. So we that the cumulative increase is a big risk, you can not buy this point, we are not now involved? me how to solve this? First, I account for business the next three years to be considered. how calculated, the first decisive . earnings uncertainty. count less than a business, you should not participate. profit we will be able to count to. like us to Maotai accounts, how much of its output? sales much? its profits, the cost is how much? even negligible cost of it. the first two days I do a TV show host asked that you be considered to account Maotai wrong. because I counted it, it may not count sales revenue. I said, you do not see Maotai Gross profit margin is 80% more, the cost is negligible. so we have to count to the account.
how calculated, for example, I now count 50 times Maotai PE, I'm buying. CAGR of 30% , to 07 years of PE should be to lose the 30% is lost 15 times. to 2007, in fact, it dropped to a 35 times PE. to the 08-year PE, lower and lower. three times nine times lower and lower , there is almost ten times the. that is 25 times 08 to 09 becomes 20 times less. which you do not mind the volatility, we follow the internationally accepted continuous PE, because there are always the standard, it growth is not so good, it should be 55-60 times the average PE. We think the next three years to 2009, when Mao Tai should be able to rise three-fold. This tape is no relationship.
16, one of the risk-free arbitrage: 6 million borrowed 100 million yuan to buy China Merchants Bank, the 102 convertible bonds, convertible 4 yuan an after holding a considerable investment bank. the next three years bank or a high-growth period. < br> how to Merchants Bank accounts. Take another example. China Merchants Bank, we believe it to buy or should buy? can not buy? just asked the lady what she said, can not you buy? I do not know. This there is no way it accounts business. because I can and can not reckoning accounts this point, you go experience. Why? China Merchants Bank is its main source of profit enterprise on these loans, deposits and loans poor. I 2002 has been tracking bank stocks, I still did not really figure out the banks is the time to find out. Look at most banks look at my year and a half, but also with the nature of riddles, just look at a trend. Why do we think to buy bank shares, which the trend is to enter a high growth area. this year, quarterly, China Merchants Bank is the growth of 80%. Over the past three years, we look at its compound growth is 30% or more. It has an inertia will continue being up. But you want me to give it afterwards, I really hard to count. because of confused, do not repay these loans business loans. This is the uncertainty, so I move off the line to calculate exactly.
So why did I buy a China Merchants Bank. we feel in accordance with the foreign experience, the experience of the domestic banking sector has entered a high growth period. We bought the stock is doing experiments, I investors, that is, high growth investment in one of you. so you have a high growth period, I withdraw. our pursuit of maximum profits, I went to other high growth of investment. I understand why the stock market is the best platform, I sell it, I was not into money, I can buy a second. actually buy a second industry or business with high growth, I must faster than others. Industry can not do this. Why China Merchants Bank is also my third-largest holding, here is a story. We think it is good, but at that time by my standards, I will not buy China Merchants Bank.
just made that year, China Merchants Bank, a convertible bond .100 per issue. At that time I thought, how do I read this, because I've been watching is also studying the Industrial and Commercial Bank, China Merchants Bank, it does not matter listed not listed, I have been researching it. I think the banks really is good , I feel it would be. financial indicators, on various growth are good. I can not help, then just move when the Bank issued 05 convertible bonds, issued in 100. also rose to the highest since listing 108, the maximum is so much, most of the time was 102 yuan. because I was full of warehouses, in a bear market I have only three stocks, Maotai, Wuliangye and Yunnanbaiyao. then I thought, I have to borrow money, Merchants Bank 100 preservation, mean that I can be debt can also be a unit. If the market is good, I bet the company is also worthwhile. I bet two dollars of risk, and this is without risk. I then borrowed 100 million 6 million, was My plate is a billion abroad. Later I asked my family, my family took me from buying. They say the risk is too, I feel there is no risk. Later, I asked a lot of people. I read it financial institutions, was convertible bonds must be repaid you. as I consider the level of risk, I think that if China Merchants Bank four years, closing down, I think this is my risk, and the closure of the case, my risk is not great . Because the State must first consider your bondholder interests. so I had a 1 million 6 million full-bought, and today, the share reform after I turned. to 2006, the share reform before the bond is 102 yuan, I by the bank interest is 9%. I say this really makes me lose money, but after a few days the share reform, and my profits almost immediately. is now 4 million. on today's China Merchants Bank to do well I bought on the cheap I do not sell. Merchants Bank in the end can not sell? because it is representative of stock, does not mean I am very sure. But I see a trend, and I think the success of this trend possibility could be 90% or even 95%. Now count Merchants Bank of PE, five cents. now should be 40 times PE. We count it, I still a conservative estimate, I think five to three years, the annual compound growth of China Merchants Bank should 30% is not a problem. I Survey the China Merchants Bank yesterday, their latest financial indicators are good I think. It is also well published, is 87%. but I accounts, only 30% considered its future growth . This is based on the banking industry into the high growth period of the judge, it is a trend in the growth of .30, three years later, China Merchants Bank to buy now, if we determine there is no fundamental errors, I think there is no problem. Merchants Bank after three years will become 20 times PE. you buy now are sleeping three-year sleep. We are China Merchants Bank this company, I think that is not high PE of 40 times. So, I took more confidence . I took it is no problem. So hold and buying are two different things.
17, high-quality, scarce resources, my strategy is to keep buying. you can have it is the greatest happiness. < br> I have the findings of bank shares, I just give you that result. I do research, I think the next three years or a period of high growth. It is to the enterprise accounts, there can not be considered clear enough to be considered clear enough and the. Generally speaking, you can not be considered clear enough to not participate. the best from settling accounts is a Lijiang tour, five minutes can be considered clear enough, and it is the three cable, how many people a day, traffic is very clear, there is no What costs. so this company is that.
so investment experience, I may be reminded from time to time, repeated reminders, the simpler the better. Now that you engage in manufacturing businesses, products must be single. Do you think one would increase the risk, in fact, it is wrong. The more one is better. I invested in a business, this business is my last vote. river pharmaceuticals. the river a lot of pharmaceutical companies can produce products, such as stomach digestion film, as far as I know, this company sells a drug that Jianweixiaoshi films accounted for more than a billion. other than 20 companies, also produces the drug, accounted for a share of only a few percent. This is I say this is the core competitiveness of enterprises, and we see that it does not reduce the price. but I quote this company, is in line with my giant brands, the baby's capital.
you see its share is small. There is another Ma Ying-long, drug production and hemorrhoids. because I am a clinical study, medical school. We are talking about is the ten men and nine hemorrhoids hemorrhoids. Why German medicine has swept the world, basically all over the world other than China, Germany, hemorrhoids medicine is monopoly. It does not play into the Chinese market, is because there is a horse should be long withstand. We see the dragon's share capital should be a small horse, only a thousand shares. but it gave the Germans the top on the outside, because it will sell cheap , medicine and good. The medicine is also a very long time, even earlier than the Tong Ren Tang, and now has several hundred years of history. This is what we want to invest in the share capital of the baby, giant brand. but its profitability and particularly strong, we should choose such a company to participate. It does not get off, no allotment had when I grew up on the end along with it.
and a sorry for you. Huangshan Why buy it? Huangshan brand good, but when I bought, the total market value of Huangshan is also only 20 million, Beijing is also one of more than 20 billion building it. and tourism sector into high-growth period, and its equity is not large, that the company you buy never lose. So high quality, scarce resources, my strategy is to keep buying. you can have it is the greatest happiness. So many people say Maotai high, high Huangshan, China Merchants Bank High, I that there is no such thing as other places around the world, it is scarce. This is a story there. One of my friend he went to Lijiang travel. I said I was in Lijiang. He said I looked to my researcher, Lijiang station can not several people. I can not say how many people stand, Lijiang is so big, how many people can not stand. He meant that researchers, Lijiang ropeway not a few people, on such a big profitability. But I say you go and see Huangshan, Huangshan large part of the scenery there is no development, I ran, all went to see the United States very. It is a great potential to meet our investment in small and large output. Huangshan man said, They just need to bed, to sweep well, the door to see Haojiu Hang up. you go to have to go, do not want to go. do not ask for help, and destiny in my own hands. improve the living standards, income to the extent is growth.
I made a research, this year I went to Huangshan. It is why the Spring Festival this year, two months, an increase of 77% over last year. passenger growth of 77%. Huangshan has a method of reckoning, it passengers growth of 7-8%, its profits increased by 30%. so high you feel this account, in fact, it is not a high growth. the stock market is such a thing. Why will grow, because this year the high-speed Hangzhou to Huangshan Highway through the past six hours to go, and now only two hours. So I believe we should continue to Huangshan was held. This has nothing to do with the broader market.
This is my revenge to the enterprise. And I give another example. fierce competition from a strong business. just like I said, Yili, Mengniu. liquid milk this company, this consumer products, as well as the river, you say what this enterprise competition force? many researchers have asked me, say you buy this business in the end be competitive? I say you can not see its competitiveness, and ultimately the competitiveness of its market monopoly, the monopoly of its products, its market share gradually increase. I have to buy Asia, although it is not listed, but I have a humidifier to see sub-80% market share, which is its greatest competitive direction must be right. If the right direction You do not judge this most basic, you can not invest.
fierce competition in this market out of a strong business, but also our future, good company, but also choice. on so many companies, we first have a large direction, it must be the concept of zero inventory. we do not stock it, and it does not ask for help. you want to buy his product, you must first advance. you rely on credit section of this company, I generally do not choose. I bought your product, first hit the advance, I bought the company are basically of this nature. is this concept, such as Huangshan, highways, you will not let you not pay him off. aircraft the airline industry, many people optimistic about the airline industry. I say that this is also optimistic about the stage, but ultimately I'm not optimistic about the company. Why? because airlines are not making money around the world. Now most of the airlines are losing money. We have not seen, I think the airline is not the loss resulting from high oil prices, because competition brings. is because the price of airline tickets, and we can not see. this fold, two fold tomorrow, all discounts, there is no way the airline accounts, This company is very risky. Today one hundred yuan, tomorrow discount fifty dollars to sell, how do you give it afterwards. So I generally do not buy airline stocks is very poor because of its uncertainty. He rose year How many times, we will not participate. We used a high certainty, then decision-making. This is my investment approach. This is our corporate accounts, we heard there is no clear?
actual Operator, we'll give it a PE, PE reduction, to circumvent some. buy choice is that we can not choose, the level I also do not know. For example, you buy 20 yuan China Merchants Bank, in the end Gao Bugao I do not know. I that a good company, if you bought high, this time may be relatively certain of the bubble. But with the growth of the company's performance good, I think this bubble will be squeezed out. the annual valuation, generally in between April to August, we will re-valuation. good company, we give it to re-valuation, the bubble will be squeezed out. the stock market can look next to see the second year, and re-valuation. I counted only a little wider, to forget the business account of three years. I'm an investor, the future profitability of companies can be counted to three years, I will largest holding, I will not invest less than count. If you can not count, you say well, I will not put. This is our most basic business operators accounts.
the next three years, such as China Merchants Bank is fifty cents this year, next year, six hair, seven hair . I have to know that fifty cents, six hair, seven hair is identified, can count to, I went in, if you can not count, I think that is a risk. This is for the future of enterprise accounts.
18, choose the right company, and then profit off it counted for three years, so we'll lock the profit.
Then I talk about my understanding of the stock market risk. I did not say I was busy day money , and I will continue to make money. I break some two hundred million account, the market value exceeded two hundred million, and my account may be only a few hundred dollars. just can not buy shares, no shares of a few dollars, and I can not buy the smallest unit. I have been full of warehouses, and no short positions before. Today, I high, I point out to fry band, I can not. I said I was a fool, I do not give me this money today, make money, I not comfortable. I also corrupt. So I risk awareness, because I have not failed, I think there is no risk. I think there is no risk in this market, I think to do anything else, a restaurant, doing a very risky industry.
follow me, eight months later than my sense of risk is also indifferent. Dr. Wang was with me in August 2005, and before that he has been losing money, regardless of bull and bear markets are losing money De. to August 2005, he came. I said I owned the first to cultivate your faith. He said I heard you. because in the past 93 years I have known him, he would not listen to me . He listened to my already rich. but he still remember my words, I give the stock, he said he remembered the .99 years, and I told him the stock, he said I go back to buy it. I said that Lenovo can buy, he said, to buy Lenovo, we are talking about fifty cents to buy a variable San Mao. He said I give you back 50 million, you buy it. but not buy back. to 2005 I came to Beijing, He followed me, he gave me a call. I told him to come. He said, my years in the stock market to lose my hard-earned money of 180 million. I said, how the people around me have lost money. when he is to take 2.9 million, I'll give you 06-year plan is given back to .06 this year, he fully listen to me, basically listen to me. then took 2.8 million, to today's results, 06 This is not only back on, but also earn a million. Last week, he borrowed 600 million, he said that I fear nothing, and I borrowed 600 million. I said, it is difficult to change human nature, he and I talk about when the Audi he was driving a car to change. I say you can not buy a car, I say you buy a car is no respect for money. I say you have a million and buy. when he said I BMW want to change. I said a million pulls you to the BMW. Later, he did not listen, this time I returned to Beijing, he bought a BMW. He said I really can not stand, I want to buy. I now have more than 40 years of age I became king after the half-billion money does not make sense to me, and I can not find girl. so I heard him say, I recently staged a trust, I had not asked him to buy. his money is my own management to help him. I heard, I said I can not change you, I forced him, and that of my trust, you have to come up with 50 million to buy. so he did not transfer assets to the right. I did not change his mind. but I have a rule, follow me more than eight months, it will change their mind, they followed me there is no risk awareness. in fact the stock market is risky, that is, the risk of company. They that make money without risk, he will be happy to end his own business, join my group.
Dr. Wang, in October 2005, we participated in a Vanke shares of the Commission. when I and Dr. Wang, when he no money, he and I went to Shenzhen is down walk. shares have fallen, he pout. This time he, and he said I was walking bulging chest, he said next time I want to head high, looking at the days of walking . So money does not make money, confidence or not the same. I am surrounded by many such people, a great boss, basically told me then, business has dropped.
so you say, the stock market for me , if not see what risk. If you insist the risk is that you do not know a thing you own is a risk. the market, according to my standards, I know things will not be outside for more than 50 .50 home , I think that is very risky. the kind of risk is gambling. So I say, the stock market risk is business risk, business risk as long as we can grasp, we are doing its own thing known to It is the uncertainty of things, become established. I must be certain, so I make money, I Linyuan money I think they are inevitable, no accidents. so this risk, how to control the risk? control risk is my track of this dynamic enterprise.
my investment, I would be every month, at least a phone call to understand its business. we said, you understand clearly? I say, you say the words people, you may not know my thoughts. I can not understand, I would not buy. This is an important indicator, I know do not know, I probably will not buy. So I keep track of companies are a very simple business that can clarified. Then I just need to figure out its operation per month, this month the number of goods sold, I can give it to do reports, and this clearly. This is the stock market risk, the biggest risk is business risk. trace a lot of skills. Of course, this is not each of us can do. this thing, but I do not speak out. It is a manifestation of people's overall quality.
Honestly, tracking is a big direction, we follow good business, big is good in the end the direction. The second, dealing with this business is good. Some companies, I think it is very good, but you have to this business a go, this leaders also love nonsense, bad deal, I would rather give up. or even if I buy a little. I bought a business in Wuhan. I follow it, when I bought dozens of million, it hit me phone, he said, Come. Finally, I flew over, and ...